Why Your Opinion Matters, Statistically

On the Exponential Value of Your Ideas

 

Statistical analysis and its associated mathematical theory has become so accurate that statisticians can produce estimates with greater than 95% accuracy from relatively small samples of people.

Ok statistics work, cool. What does this mean for me?

The Exponential Value of Ideas Theory

The idea involves reframing the way statistical samples are viewed, in terms of the power of one’s ideas to hold exponential value, and to encourage individuals to increase their understanding on all matters of consequence.

Here is how it works:

Depending on the way the samples are calculated, and given that the formulas are accurate, when sampled successfully, the opinion of the sampled individual becomes greater than one and equivalent to a sum representative of the over all sample size. Essentially, under the microscope of powerful statistical analysis, a single person’s opinion becomes amplified to represent the opinion of thousands of others.

For example, let’s use a poll taken in Pennsylvania recently.

State polls typically draw upon a random sample of 500 to 1,000 valid interviews to derive an accurate gauge of the opinion of Citizens. As we see below:

“HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania voters oppose repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, by a 50-40 percent margin, a statewide poll shows…The poll of 628 registered voters by Franklin & Marshall College found substantial support for Medicaid expansion, which the law allowed as a choice for states in a 2012 U.S. Supreme Court ruling.”

Using the above random sample of 628, and some simple division, we can accurately assign a greater value to the opinion of each person polled. Therefore, in a random sample of 628 people, from 12.6 million (Pennsylvania has a population of 12.6 million people.) we see that each person’s opinion counts for the opinion of 20,064 Pennsylvanians.

Pretty powerful for one person’s ideas…if even in an extrapolated statistical way.

Think about it, on the day this random sampling of Pennsylvanians was conducted, the individuals who answered their phones, and participated in the survey, were speaking on behalf of 20K of their fellow citizens.

We can use this same idea on national poles or in any way that the opinions of others are statistically measured in general.

Pretty much on any given day what you believe is statistically representative of the beliefs of at least 10,000 other people, and how they think and feel about things.

Your opinion matters, big time.

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